Am I too bullish on the stock market?

Betting on the stock market
A few days ago a concerned follower DM’d me asking me if I’m worried that I’m too bullish on the market. He said, “what if we have another 50 bad years of the market, like those that ended in 1980”. I informed him that a $500 per month investment over those years would have yielded $9.4 million dollars.

“Ok”, he said, “but what about the 20 years from 1930-1950?”. Now he’s really cherry picking because that’s the great depression and a much shorter time frame. “Well”, I said “A $500/month investment during those years would have yielded $387,197. Not millions, but not bad for $500/month during the worst financial crisis in American history.

The last ten years have been great for the market. The market had an annualized return of 16.5% over the last decade. But that doesn’t mean we have flat or bad years ahead of us. Over the last 100 years the market has averaged a 10.8% annual return.

Over the last 100 year, 74 years we’ve seen the market produce a positive return. 26 have been negative. So again, the last 10 years have been good with nine